2006-05-17 - 10:13 a.m.
Everything I predicted was wrong.
Well, not quite everything. The candidate I actually volunteed for, Patrick Murphy won his primary handily. I'm sure it was my phone calls that did it. Ha.
I was also right about my current rep, Curtis Thomas, who had no trouble beating his primary challenger. Good thing he won. I wanted to volunteer for him but it never panned out because his staff was too disorganized.
What wasn't I right about? Well, a friend of mine ran off to Pittsburgh to work on the campaign of Joseph Preston. I figured that was going to be a walk. It was not a walk. It looks like he won, after all, but it was close as can be. It's definitely going to take a recount. Preston appears to be ahead by less than 100 votes. In other words, I bet my friend can verifiably claim that her crew won him the victory, which is fantastic news for her and I'm really happy about it. I wish I had any clue that was what was going on before 2PM yesterday! Careful about the conclusions you jump to when you haven't looked into something, Brady... and how you read someone's face when they talk about it.
I was wrong about Valerie MacDonald Roberts. I sat in on an endorsement interview with her when I was still with ACORN and I thought it was a joke. What chance did she have against the incumbent? This random liberal from Pittsburgh? Then she got the endorsement of every newspaper in the state where Democrats vote in numbers. She got votes in the six digits yesterday, but still swept her. It's very sad. So I was right, in a way, but not in the important way. She did have a chance after all, and the rest of us messed it up. If folks with people on the ground had seen that race a little more clearly, it could have been different. I'm not saying she would have won, but it would have been closer, at least. Come to think of it, I don't understand why Rendell didn't back her. He could have made it different. He could have given her a win, and he should have. An endorsement of Knoll by anyone, especially the Governor, is irresponsible.
I was wrong about Sen. President Pro-Tem Robert Jubelirer and Sen. Majority Leader David Brightbill. I never believed that voters in the middle of the state would be crazy enough to vote out the two most powerful men in the Senate over something as silly as the pay-raise debacle.
You want to vote for change, mid-staters? Okay, let me tell you what sort of change you are going to have after this, residents of Altoona and Lebanon, Pennsylvania. You will get about a tenth of the money from the state you once got. No new buildings. No new hospitals and schools for you. Thos halcyon days are very, very over. You will see that money move to the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. You thought it was bad for you that way before? Ha ha! Just wait.
You will also see the issues that get voted on in Harrisburg move much further away from your values. Why? Because YOUR elected leaders DECIDED what got voted on in Harrisburg, and guess what? These freshmen nutbags you elected are NOT getting leadership posts. In fact, while my political prediction powers have always been pretty bad, I feel confident saying that none of you are going to vote on another President Pro-Tem or Majority Leader again in your lifetimes. Hey, great move. Way to vote for change.
(not that I really care, by the way, these guys weren't on my side... I'm just humbled by the short-sightedness of mid-state voters).
I was wrong about Andy Dinniman. When Sen. Thompson died and a special election was called to replace him till the November election, I thought a Republican would replace the fallen Republican incumbent. Not so. This is great news for the Raise the Minimum Wage Campaign I'm working on by day. I didn't really look into this race - this was just another foolish conclusion I jumped to. Let's hear it for the Organized Labor folks that made this win happen!
What else was I wrong about? Oh, right. Tony Payton. Look, when I went and voted in North Philadelphia yesterday, I was told to vote for the right ward leader. The worker actually opened the door of the polling place and pointed to the woman's name for me. That's nothing, though. In polling locations throughout the 179th House District, pollworkers people were handing people stamps so they could 'write in' Vazquez, the primary opponent of Payton who failed to produce enough signatures to get on the ballot, despite party endorsement. The stamps were passed out by pollworkers inside polling places. Are you kidding? I thought this was America! Do we need to call in the U.N.?
I thought this would still be easy for Payton, as he was the only one on the ballot and the political class was mocking the endorsed candidate for failure to produce petitions. Not so. It sounds like Payton might actually lose. In fact, he's behind by all reports - it's just tricky to really know because they are counting write-ins. Will the election be declared illigit? I hope so.
I clearly have a lot to learn about power, politics and Philadelphia. But just a ward or two over, things were very differnt. Behold my local hero, Vince Fumo and the big man, Gov. Ed Rendell, and Ann Dicker. Who won it? The ex-Chief of Staff for the retiring incumbent, Mike O'Brien. It's still close, and Anne Dicker might pull it out. But it looks like Graboyes lost.
Isn't that weird? In one district, the machine is able to corruptly pull out a win, despite the odds, but they can't win in a three way race with a political blackhorse and some guy. I did not expect this. She had by far the largest coalition, and she came in third. Well, of the two at the top this morning, I'd definitely rather have Anne Dicker. Though, I have to be honest, in the end I'd have backed Graboyes if I lived there. Look, Anne Dicker can talk about changing democracy all she wants, but she's still an upper-class yuppie and all her backers were upper class yuppies. I'm not willing to believe that just because you are educated and liberal you know what's best. I'd back Graboyes because she's backed by Fumo, and Fumo backs the working man and, more importantly, the working man down on his luck. This is what I believe in. I believe in helping the working man down on his luck. I understand the working man down on his luck. I do not understand "change." I cannot count on "change." I cannot predict "change." I cannot get excited about "change." Sorry Anne, I like you and I like your supporters, but I don't really know what you are or what you mean. I feel like yours was, ultimately, an elitist campaign, it was just a different sort of elite. It's true, Fumo is elite, too, but he's a logical elite. An elite who does good in a predictable way. Can "change" deliver what the Fumo operation can deliver? I doubt it. But how could I ever know?
They are calling this the biggest Primary Election day upset in 30 years. Once upon a time I probably would have been very excited. Opportunity! Uproar! In the end, though, this is a silly brouhaha over the legislative payraise, that voters managed to cry foul and get rescinded anyway. Your leaders admitted their mistake and you still voted them out!!!
So what does it matter? It isn't about real reform or change. Though I don't honestly care about reform and change. What I care about is a state with the clout, money and energy to build great new programs and systems that will serve the people better and generate real opportunity for economic and intellectual expansion of both individuals and their neighborhoods. That's what I care about, which doesn't necessarily amount to a clean, open system run by Boy Scouts. Boy Scouts haven't built a lot of hospitals and they haven't built any subway systems, you know what I'm saying?
No, this year's primary upset feels more like voters caught a Stupid-Flue. It's like the craze for American Idol and Pogs. It's a fever that grabs people, feels exciting for a bit and then it all passes. What ultimately comes of stupid-flues? It's nice for the powers that be on my side - this year. New leadership in the Senate gives the liberals a chance to at least push to put a moderate in charge rather than crazy right wingers, but I don't think we are going to look up to Harrisburg in a year and see much different. Hell, I doubt all these voters who kicked out incumbents would know change if they saw it, or come close to agreeing on what change should be if they talked about it with each other. Especially if they got down to brass tacks - what programs would you kill, keep and expand? What laws would you strengthen, rescind and enforce? That, my friends, is where change counts. Not "the process."
Anyway, I want someone to tell me what good all this change will do. I'm not convinced.
In the meantime, I am going to kick back and try to listen to the streets in whatever way I can in this election. This election year was a blip, but you can learn from blips about how a city works and doesn't work on Election Day, and I was wrong about so many things I need to listen and figure it out. A lot of people are going to pronounce a lot of simple truths about what happened today, but I'm not.
My predictions were bad. I didn't understand what was happening, so I sure as hell don't know what happened. I think a lot of people would admit to the same this morning if they weren't so damn prideful. So I'm not listening to anyone esclusively. I need to listen to everyone and look at everything and try to get some sense for the operations locally and how they work.
I am only an egg.
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